Back

Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease's content profile, based on 15 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Cost analysis of a nationwide typhoid conjugate vaccine campaign in Burkina Faso

Koulidiati, J.-L.; Zoma, R. L.; Nebie, E. I.; Soumaila, Y.; Neya, C. O.; Kiendrebeogo, J. A.; Debellut, F.

2026-04-25 health economics 10.64898/2026.04.17.26350856 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.8%
Show abstract

BackgroundIn Burkina Faso, typhoid fever remains a major public health concern, with a high incidence among children younger than 15 years of age. To address this burden, the country introduced typhoid conjugate vaccine in January 2025 through a national vaccination campaign reaching children aged 9 months to 14 years. This study aimed to estimate the cost of typhoid conjugate vaccine delivery during the national campaign and to identify the main cost drivers across different administrative levels. MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional, retrospective costing study using a microcosting approach from the government perspective. We collected data from fifty health facilities, eight health districts, five health regions, and the national level. Financial and economic costs were estimated for each level, excluding vaccine and syringe costs. All costs were converted to 2024 USD using the official exchange rate. FindingsVaccinators administered a total of 10.5 million typhoid conjugate vaccine doses. The average financial cost per dose was $0.47 (95% CI: $0.39-$0.51), and the economic cost was $2.16 (95% CI: $1.71-$2.56). Human resources and per diem payments were the main contributors to costs. Costs varied by geography, delivery strategy, and security context, with higher costs observed in rural and conflict-affected areas. The mobile-temporary posts strategy had the highest economic cost per dose ($2.02; 95% CI: $1.64-$2.40), while the fixed strategy had the highest financial cost per dose ($0.41; 95% CI: ($0.32-$0.49). ConclusionThe financial cost per dose remained within Gavi, the Vaccine Alliances operational support range. The observed cost variations highlight the need for targeted funding and enhanced logistical support to ensure equitable access, particularly in rural and insecure areas. This study provides evidence to inform future vaccination campaigns and supports decision-making for typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction in other countries in the region.

2
Sentinel Surveillance for Pediatric Bacterial Meningitis in a Tertiary Level Pediatric Hospital in Colombia, 2016 - 2023

Bautista, A.; Moreno, G. C.; Jerez, D.; Rojas, M. d. P. P.; Moreno, J.; Maldonado, L. Y.; Rodriguez, Y. M. E.; Sanabria, O.; Palacios, J.; Sotelo, J. C. R.; Duarte, M. C.; Sabogal, E.; Jimenez, K.; Duarte, C.

2026-03-27 public and global health 10.64898/2026.03.25.26348800 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.7%
Show abstract

Introduction: Bacterial meningitis (BM) is a common bacterial infection of the central nervous system, and its incidence in children varies by age, with the highest rates observed in infants younger than two months old. Objective: To describe the etiology, epidemiology, and clinical presentation of children under 5 years of age with BM at HOMI between 2016 to 2023. Materials and methods: Descriptive study of children under 5 years of age with suspected BM. Probable cases were those with CSF results consistent with BM. Confirmed cases had a positive CSF culture or blood culture for a bacterial pathogen or a positive molecular test for a bacterium in the CSF. Demographic variables, incidence of BM per year, mortality, and sequelae among survivors were analyzed. Results: A total of 527 suspected cases of BM were evaluated. Of these, 22.8% (120/527) were classified as probable cases and 13.1% (69/527) as confirmed cases. Children under 2 years of age accounted for 37.2% of probable cases and 78.2% of confirmed cases. Among confirmed cases, the most frequent symptoms were fever (98.3%), altered consciousness (39.1%), seizures (36.2%), and lethargy (27.5%). The mortality rate was 11.6% (8/69), and the mean hospital stay among patients with BM was 24.5 days. Streptococcus pneumoniae was identified in 26.1% of confirmed cases, with most isolates belonging to serotypes not included in PCV10. Haemophilus influenzae accounted for 17.4% of cases, of which 77.7% were serotype b. Neisseria meningitidis represented 10.1% of cases, and 60% of these were serogroup C. Other pathogens were identified in 49.1% of patients. Conclusion: Sentinel surveillance makes it possible to measure the impact of public health interventions and evaluate the impact of vaccines already used.

3
Increasing frequency of secondary dengue infections in sequential outbreaks (2016-2024). Clinical impact and diagnostic challenges.

Espindola, S. L.; Pereson, M. J.; Lema, J. M.; Kachuk, A.; Carballo, G.; Aloisi, N.; Badano, M. N.; Miretti, M.; Di Lello, F. A.; Bare, P. C.

2026-06-01 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354405 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.5%
Show abstract

Successive dengue virus (DENV) outbreaks can progressively reshape population immunity influencing disease expression and diagnostic performance. Objectives The aim was to evaluate the impact of secondary infections across sequential outbreaks on clinical severity, serotype dynamics and diagnostic concordance. Methods This retrospective study analyzed 976 febrile-stage samples from three sequential outbreaks in Misiones, Argentina. For serotyping and clinical analyses, 869 viremic samples confirmed by at least one direct method were included (2016: n=512; 2019: n=148; 2024: n=209). Additionally, 318 samples, including 107 non-viremic cases, were used to compare NS1 rapid diagnostic tests (NS1 Ag) and RT-PCR. Viral serotyping and clinical and laboratory markers of disease severity were evaluated. Results Secondary infections increased from 31.05% (2016) to 43.24% (2019) and 53.87% (2024) (p<0.0010). Serotype distribution shifted from DENV-1 predominance in 2016 (95.12%), DENV-1/DENV-4 co-circulation in 2019 (60.71%/39.29%), and DENV-2 predominance in 2024 (97.60%). Secondary infections were associated with more severe disease manifestations, particularly in 2024, with higher hematocrit (p=0.0120) and hemoglobin (p=0.0080), lower white blood cells (p=0.020) and platelet counts (p=0.0030), and elevated AST (p=0.0007) and ALT (p=0.0130). Concordance between NS1 Ag and RT-PCR was lower in secondary infections (k=0.457 vs k=0.759, p=0.0013). Conclusions The rising frequency of secondary infections may affect both clinical severity and diagnostic performance during outbreaks. The clinical impact was more evident in 2024, likely associated with the introduction of a new serotype. These findings highlight the need for optimized surveillance and diagnostic strategies to improve case detection and patient management during epidemics.

4
Epidemiological Patterns and Characteristics of Animal Bite Cases in Sylhet, Bangladesh: A Retrospective Study of 6,565 Cases

Hossain, H.; Mohiuddin, A. S. M.; Islam, S.; Insan, M.; Ahmed, S.; Brishty, K. A.; Parvej, M.; Yadav, S. K.; Ahmed, S.; Das, S. R.; Rahman, M. M.; Rahman, M. M.; Paul, B.

2026-04-22 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351359 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.0%
Show abstract

BackgroundAnimal bites represent a significant public health concern due to the risk of injuries and transmission of zoonotic diseases such as Rabies, particularly in low and lower- middle-income countries (LMICs). Understanding the epidemiological characteristics of animal bite incidents is essential for improving the prevention and control strategies. This study aimed to characterize the epidemiological patterns and characteristics of animal bite cases in Sylhet, Bangladesh. Methodology/Principal findingsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of 6,565 animal bite cases reported between January 1 and December 31, 2024, in Sylhet, Bangladesh. Data on demographic characteristics, type of biting animal, site of bite, and exposure category were collected and analyzed to determine associations using correlation analyses and chi-square tests. Among the victims, 3,917 (60%) were male and 2,648 (40%) were female and young adults aged 20-39 years comprised the largest group (39% of cases). The majority of cases (88.1%) originated from urban areas within Sylhet City Corporation. Cats were the leading cause of bites (56.6%), followed by dogs (35.0%) and monkeys (7.5%), suggesting a shift from the traditional dog-dominated pattern. The most frequently affected anatomical sites were the legs (50.3%) and hands (40.9%). Most exposures were classified as World Health Organization (WHO) Category II (98.2%). Bite incidents showed moderate seasonal variation, with peaks in spring and early autumn. A significant declining temporal trend was observed for monkey bites (R = -0.59, p = 0.044), whereas cat and dog bite patterns remained relatively stable throughout the year. Significant associations were identified between bite site and age group, as well as between biting animal and demographic characteristics (p < 0.05). Conclusion/SignificanceThese findings highlight the epidemiological patterns of animal bites in Sylhet and emphasize the need for strengthened public awareness, surveillance, and preventive strategies to reduce animal bite incidents and associated zoonotic disease risks. SynnopsisO_LIA large-scale retrospective analysis of 6,565 animal bite cases revealed a cat-dominant bite pattern (56.6%), contrasting with the traditional dog-dominant paradigm in South Asia. C_LIO_LIYoung adults (20-39 years) and males (60%) were disproportionately affected, reflecting occupational and behavioral exposure risks. C_LIO_LIUrban residents (88.1%) accounted for the majority of cases, highlighting the growing public health burden of animal bites in rapidly urbanizing settings. C_LIO_LIThe most frequently affected anatomical sites were the legs (50.3%) and hands (40.9%). Bite incidents showed moderate seasonal variation, with peaks in spring and early autumn. C_LIO_LICategory II exposures (98.2%) predominated, indicating a high burden of seemingly minor injuries that may be underestimated in rabies prevention strategies. C_LI

5
Suspected rabies exposure among animal-bite human cases in Busia district, Uganda: Prevalence, associated factors and delayed post-exposure care-seeking. A cross-sectional study

Wagaba, D.; Nabukenya, I.; Kizza, J.; Unith, H.; Kanyange, A.; Turyahabwe, C.; Kibuuka, H.; Mugisha, D.; Ogola, S. P.; Nabidda, S.; Kisakye, L. K.; Kalyango, J.

2026-06-01 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354408 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
2.7%
Show abstract

Background Rabies is a zoonotic neglected public health problem associated with animal bites, especially domestic carnivores claiming 59,000 deaths annually predominantly in developing countries of Africa and Asia. There is a high risk of exposure among rural communities endemic with animal rabies where adoption of prevention strategies is minimal. This study determined the prevalence of suspected rabies exposure, associated factors, and delayed post-exposure care-seeking among animal-bite human cases in Busia district, Uganda. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study that involved 332 consecutively sampled animal bite human cases that occurred within the period 2023 to 2024. Data for the bite cases from records were collected using a data abstraction tool. In addition, interviewer-administered semi-structured questionnaires were used to collect data on sociodemographic, animal-related and environmental characteristics. Approximate bite locations were collected using Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates via Kobo collect. Analysis was carried out in STATA 17 using mixed effects modified Poisson regression for factors associated with suspected rabies exposure. Results: The median age of the bite cases was 18 (IQR: 9-36) with the male gender predominantly affected. The prevalence of suspected rabies exposure was 53.6% (95% Confidence interval - CI: 46.8-60.3). Factors associated were urban versus (vs) rural residence (adjusted prevalence ratio-aPR: 1.04, 95%CI: 1.00-1.08), being bitten by a stray animal (aPR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.22-1.35) and wild animal (aPR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.14-1.30) vs domestic animal, vaccination status of the biting animal i.e. vaccinated vs unvaccinated (aPR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.69-0.85), provoked vs unprovoked bites (aPR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.79-0.86), and distance to nearest river ([&ge;]5km) vs <5km (aPR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.87-0.99). The prevalence of delayed post-exposure seeking was 23.0% (95% CI: 16.5-31.1) among the suspected rabies exposures. Conclusion: The study reveals a high prevalence of suspected rabies exposure. Factors associated are multidimensional i.e. are of human, animal and environmental origin. The one health paradigm should be emphasized during routine surveillance of rabies-related cases. The study observed that 1 in 5 bite cases delayed to seek care post bite exposure. We recommend collaborations between sectors, routine vaccination and awareness campaigns, and monitoring of wild carnivore populations and environmental dynamics in rabies-related surveillance.

6
Projected Burden of Bloodstream Infections and the Impact of Molecular Rapid Diagnostic Testing in England and the United States (2025-2029)

Karichu, J. K.; Pennington, M.; Lander, K.; Smith, T. T.; Thornberg, A.

2026-03-20 health economics 10.64898/2026.03.18.26348587 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
2.6%
Show abstract

Introduction Data on bloodstream infections (BSI) indicate a growth in incidence over time. This analysis utilised national data from England and the best available United States (US) evidence to predict BSI incidence over the years 2025 to 2029. The analysis utilised evidence on the cost-effectiveness of molecular rapid diagnostic tests (mRDT) to estimate the cost and mortality associated with BSI, and the potential for increased use of mRDT to save lives. Methods Data on BSI incidence by age group and sex for England in 2017 and the US (Minnesota) for 2003 to 2005 were combined with demographic projections over the years 2025 to 2029 to estimate the number of BSIs. Published costs and mortality associated with BSI, according to the method of identification of the pathogen, were used to estimate the lives saved and the cost impact of widespread use of mRDT in England and the US. Results BSI cases in England and the US are predicted to total 1.02 million and 6.24 million over the years 2025 to 2029, associated costs are GBP14.6 million and $221 million, respectively. Expanding the use of mRDT would save 2,219 and 7,554 lives in England and the US, respectively, over a 5-year period and would reduce healthcare expenditure in both countries. Conclusion There is a compelling argument to increase the uptake of mRDT to improve patient outcomes. This analysis demonstrates that expanded mRDT adoption can significantly reduce BSI burden, saving over 9,700 lives and decreasing healthcare expenditure in both countries.

7
Structural and spatial dynamics of mosquito-arbovirus associations in Mexico (2007 to 2025): A systematic review and quantitative synthesis

Obayomi, A. D.; Cisneros, J. P.; Asubiojo, M. O.; Dominguez-Acosta, O.; Elufisan, T. O.; Salazar Sanchez, M. I.

2026-04-28 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.24.26351690 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
2.4%
Show abstract

BackgroundMosquito-borne arboviruses present persistent public health threats in Mexico. Multiple vector species are often considered to influence the local transmission of arboviral diseases; however, the structure and spatial dynamics of mosquito-arbovirus associations are unknown. MethodsWe conducted a systematic review to synthesize research investigating natural arboviral infections across mosquito taxa. PRISMA-guided search was done in PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar, resulting in 46 included articles from 2007 to 2025. To delineate mosquito-arbovirus associations, spatial autocorrelation, bipartite network analysis, generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) and comparative analysis of infection across sex and life stages were used to resolve spatial dynamics, species-specific viral detection and maintenance profiles. ResultsMinimum Infection Rate (MIR) revealed significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Global Morans I = 0.139; p = 0.016), indicating structured but diffuse spatial patterns (Local Morans I = 0.092; p = 0.045). Sampling intensity negatively correlated with the MIR (Spearman {rho} = -0.680, p < 0.001), indicating that sampling effort did not obscure the spatial structure. Elevated values were observed in a few municipalities across south-central and southeastern Mexico, where vegetation and land use interface. Network analysis (connectance = 0.40) and GLMM characterized an Aedes-centered network with broader taxonomic patterns driven by ZIKV; detection was significantly higher in Culex quinquefasciatus (OR = 1.88, p < 0.001) relative to Aedes aegypti. DENV detection patterns contrasted with other key viruses; no significant differences in transmission modes ({chi}{superscript 2} = 1.01, p = 0.315), suggesting a distinct maintenance profile. ConclusionsThis review unveils spatially diffuse and virus-specific detection patterns across heterogeneous communities in Mexico, findings that transcend Aedes-centric frameworks. These resolutions provide an evidence-based baseline that encourages an integrated, community-scale approach in regional surveillance programs. AUTHOR SUMMARYMosquito-borne arboviruses continue to threaten human and animal health across Mexico. Previous research has investigated arboviral infections and mosquito fauna as separate entities, but not their associations. This systematic review aims to resolve the spatial structure and multi-species dynamics of mosquito-arbovirus associations. We synthesized a long-term dataset of mosquito-borne virus surveillance from academic articles. Spatial models determined if localized detections were random and/or clustered with hotspots. Network and mixed models estimated the likelihood of positive arbovirus detection in mosquito species and a comparison test quantified the influence of vertical transmission on viral maintenance. Arboviral infection rates showed a diffuse spatial pattern with elevated values across urban and interface settings. Aedes aegypti shaped the mosquito-arbovirus network as expected; however, Culex quinquefasciatus showed significantly higher odds of ZIKV detection, supporting broader surveillance. These findings clarify species-specific detection and maintenance profiles across mosquito taxa, informing improved and targeted control strategies for arboviral diseases in Mexico.

8
Epidemiological, Clinical, and Diagnostic Characteristics of a Large-Scale Upsurge of Dengue in the Rohingya Refugee Camps and Host Communities in Coxs Bazar, Bangladesh, 2021 to 2024: A Retrospective Study

Halder, C. E.; Hasan, M. A.; Soma, E.; Charles Okello, J.; Rahman, M. M.; Das, P. P.; Prue, U. M.; Barasa, D. W.; Md, A.; Hosen, M. S.; Shagar, S. H.; CHONG, E. Y. C.; Paul, D.; Mowla, S. M. N.; Hoque, M.; Bhuiyan, A. T. M.; Hussain, M. F.

2026-03-30 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.03.27.26349486 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
2.2%
Show abstract

Background: Dengue emerged as a new public health threat in the Rohingya refugee camps in Coxs Bazar, Bangladesh, in 2021 and expanded into large-scale upsurges in subsequent years. Evidence on dengue epidemiology and clinical presentation in protracted refugee settings remains limited, despite the need for stronger outbreak preparedness and case management in these contexts. Objectives: To describe the epidemiological, clinical, and diagnostic characteristics of the dengue upsurge among Rohingya refugees and surrounding host communities in Coxs Bazar, Bangladesh, and to identify predictors of inpatient admission and diagnostic positivity patterns. Methods: This retrospective observational study used anonymized surveillance data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) dengue patient database. Rapid diagnostic test (RDT)-confirmed dengue cases identified across 36 IOM-supported health facilities in Ukhiya and Teknaf between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2024 were included. Demographic, epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory variables were summarized using descriptive statistics. Weekly incidence was aggregated by epidemiological week and calendar year, and epidemic growth and decay phases were modelled using phase-specific Poisson regression. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of inpatient admission and to examine associations between delay in presentation and RDT positivity patterns, adjusting for age and sex. Results: A total of 35,581 RDT-confirmed dengue cases were reported, of which 90.2% occurred among Rohingya refugees. The median age was 17 years (IQR 7-30), and 46.0% of cases were among children aged 0-14 years. Annual caseload increased from 1,011 in 2021 to 11,752 in 2022, 10,669 in 2023 and 12,149 in 2024, with seasonal peaks during the monsoon period and progressively later peaks and longer epidemic tails over time. Poisson models showed decreasing growth rates across years (r=0.449 in 2021 to r=0.091 in 2024) with increasing doubling times, while decay rates remained broadly comparable (halving time ~4.4-6.0 weeks). Overall, 8.0% of cases required inpatient admission, 1.3% were referred, and four deaths were reported (case fatality <0.1%). In multivariable analysis, inpatient admission was associated with older age ([&ge;]60 vs 0-14: aOR 2.31), delayed presentation (aOR 1.06 per day), refugee status (aOR 1.39), presence of any World Health Organization (WHO) warning sign (aOR 26.60), low systolic BP (aOR 2.84) and chronic co-morbidity (aOR 6.07). In addition, males had lower odds of admission than females (aOR 0.88). NS1 antigen alone was positive in 62.1% of cases, IgM alone in 33.6%, and dual positivity in 4.3%. Longer delay from symptom onset to presentation was strongly associated with IgM-only positivity compared with NS1-only positivity (adjusted models controlling for age and sex). Conclusion: Sustained dengue preparedness is required in Coxs Bazar, including strengthened surveillance, community-based early referral, targeted monitoring of high-risk groups, environmental vector control, and phase-appropriate use of NS1 and IgM/IgG diagnostics to reduce missed diagnoses and prevent progression to severe disease. These findings highlight the need for a policy shift from episodic outbreak response toward sustained dengue preparedness in humanitarian settings, including strengthened surveillance systems, integrated diagnostic strategies, community-based early referral, and coordinated vector control interventions.

9
Molecular Characterization and Clinical Profile of Dengue Virus Serotypes in NS1-Positive Patients: A Cross-sectional Study from Rajkot, Gujarat, India

Padhi, A.; Bera, J. H.; Rajyaguru, B.; Chauhan, J.; Rank, D.; Modasiya, I.; Bhalani, S.; Agarwal, A.

2026-03-17 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.03.16.26348474 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
2.1%
Show abstract

BackgroundDengue virus infection remains a significant public health concern in India, with changing serotype dynamics influencing disease epidemiology. Understanding local serotype distribution and clinical characteristics is crucial for effective disease management and surveillance. ObjectivesTo determine the prevalence of dengue virus serotypes and analyze their clinical characteristics among NS1-positive patients at a tertiary-care hospital in Gujarat, India. MethodsA cross-sectional study was conducted on NS1-positive dengue patients admitted to AIIMS Rajkot from September 2023 to November 2024. Real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed for serotype identification. Clinical and demographic data were collected and analyzed. ResultsNS1-positive patients (70) were confirmed by RT-PCR. DENV-2 was the predominant serotype (53 cases, 75.7%), followed by DENV-1 and DENV-3 (7 cases each, 10.0%), and DENV-4 (2 cases, 2.9%). One co-infection case (DENV-2 + DENV-3) (1.4%) was identified. The mean age was 27.7 {+/-} 14.4 years, with male predominance (58.6%). Young adults (19-35 years) were most affected (45.7%), followed by pediatric patients [&le;]18 years (32.9%). Severe dengue occurred in only one case (1.4%), while hospitalization was required in 25 cases (35.7%). All patients presented with fever, chills, headache (50%), rashes (56%), and malaise (56%), being the most common associated symptoms. ConclusionsDENV-2 showed clear predominance in the Rajkot region during the study period, with low rates of severe disease. The significant pediatric and young adult involvement highlights the need for targeted prevention strategies. These findings contribute to the understanding of regional dengue epidemiology and support evidence-based surveillance and control measures.

10
Epidemiology of Venezuelan haemorrhagic fever in Barinas state, Venezuela

Garcia, M.-M.; Rodriguez, X.; Lopez, S. J.; Reyes Dorante, J. J.; Aldana, E. J.; Orduno, N. E.; Lugo, A.; Salazar, D.; Carvallo, N.; Rivas, Y.; Estofolete, C. F.; Nogueira, M. L.; Lezcano-Coba, C.; Galue, J.; Juarez, Y.; Donnelly, C. A.; Narciso Franco, J.; Carrera, J.-P.

2026-04-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.04.26348925 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
1.9%
Show abstract

Background Venezuelan haemorrhagic fever (VHF), caused by Guanarito virus (GTOV), is a zoonotic disease endemic to the western plains of Venezuela. Despite decades of recognition, its epidemiology and clinical profile remain poorly characterised. Methodology We analysed individual level data from standardised case report forms submitted to the Venezuelan National Epidemiological Surveillance System between 2017 and 2024 for suspected VHF cases in Barinas, Apure, and Portuguesa. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were examined to characterise temporal and geographical patterns and to define the clinical profile of VHF compared with endemic arboviral infections. Principal Findings Among 480 suspected cases, 72 (15.0%) were laboratory confirmed GTOV infections. Confirmed cases occurred predominantly in men engaged in agricultural or service related occupations, with the highest prevalence among individuals aged 46 to 90 years. A marked seasonal pattern was observed, with most cases occurring between September and January. The most frequently reported symptoms included headache, haemorrhage, sore throat, and diarrhoea. Compared with other endemic arboviral infections, GTOV was more strongly associated with headache, myalgia, sore throat, haemorrhage, and abdominal pain, delineating a distinct clinical phenotype relative to diseases caused by encephalitic alphaviruses, chikungunya virus, dengue virus, and Zika virus. The case fatality ratio among laboratory confirmed cases was 36.1% (95% CI: 25.1 to 48.3). GTOV infection was independently associated with mortality (adjusted relative risk [aRR] 3.66; 95% CI 2.28 to 5.87; p < 0.001), underscoring its substantial clinical severity. Conclusion GTOV remains endemically transmitted in western Venezuela, disproportionately affecting older men engaged in agricultural and service related occupations. Its seasonality and clinical phenotype, characterised by haemorrhage, sore throat, and gastrointestinal symptoms, highlight the need for clinical awareness and improved differential diagnosis, particularly in remote endemic settings with limited access to laboratory testing.

11
Hantavirus Disease in Uruguay: Trends and Mortality Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

criscuolo, z.; Blanco, L.; Ferrara, F.; Ciaccio, K.; Gomez Carassale, L.; Gonzalez Reyes, M.; Machado Rivero, B.; Sosa Dias, F.; Facal Castro, J. A.

2026-06-11 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.10.26355375 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
1.9%
Show abstract

Introduction: Hantavirus disease is an emerging and potentially severe zoonosis of global distribution. In Uruguay, it is transmitted by rodents inhabiting peridomestic, suburban, and rural areas. Global incidence is estimated at 150,000 to 200,000 cases per year, with up to 300 annual cases in the Americas. Since 1997, Uruguay's Ministry of Public Health (MPH) has monitored Hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS), the most common clinical presentation in the region. By 2019, a total of 271 cases had been identified in the country, with an estimated mortality rate of nearly 50%. Objectives: To describe the clinical, epidemiological, and occupational characteristics of patients with Hantavirus disease in Uruguay during the pre-pandemic (2018-2019) and pandemic (2020-2021) periods. Methods: A descriptive, cross-sectional, observational study was conducted, including all serologically confirmed cases of Hantavirus infection reported to the MPH between 2018 and 2021. Clinical and demographic data were extracted from the mandatory reporting form for zoonotic diseases. Incidence and case fatality rates were calculated, and factors associated with fatal outcomes were analyzed. Results: A total of 58 confirmed cases were identified between 2018 and 2021. Most patients were male (62%), with a mean age of 36.5 years (SD 16). A decline in incidence was observed during 2020-2021, with no significant change in case fatality. Direct rodent exposure was the most frequently associated risk factor. Montevideo and Canelones were the most affected departments. Renal and pulmonary involvement were significantly associated with mortality. Conclusion: Hantavirus remains a relevant public health concern in Uruguay. Although a decrease in incidence was observed during the COVID-19 pandemic years, case fatality rates remained high. The findings underscore the need for sustained surveillance and early recognition, particularly in urbanizing regions.

12
Incidence, Clinical Features, and Outcomes of Acute Kidney Injury in Adults and Children Admitted with Dengue Infection in Jamaica

Wilson, T.; Walker, J.; Thomas-Chen, R.; Fisher, L. A.

2026-03-28 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.03.26.26349368 medRxiv
Top 0.2%
1.7%
Show abstract

Background: The global burden of dengue infection has rising, yet limited data exists on its impact in the Caribbean. We describe the incidence and associates of acute kidney injury in adults and children with dengue at a teaching hospital in Jamaica. Methods: A single-centre retrospective cohort study of admissions with laboratory confirmed dengue infection at University Hospital of the West Indies, Mona Jamaica between January 2023 to November 2024. AKI was defined using Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes definitions. Patients were included if aged >1year and had at least 2 creatinine values. Clinical, demographic and laboratory data were abstracted by chart review. Summary statistics were used to describe continuous and categorical data, and logistic regression to determine AKI associations. Stratified analysis was performed by age-group (adults-aged [&ge;] 16, and paediatric-aged <16 years). Results: Analyses included 167 persons, 62% (103) were male, mean age was 26.1{+/-}19.5 years. AKI occurred in 25.8%, 65.1% were KDIGO stage 1. AKI incidence was 30.2% and 18.0% among adults and children respectively. There were 3 in-hospital deaths. People with AKI were older 32{+/-}21.4 vs 24 {+/-}18.4 (p=0.021), and had longer duration of stay [6 vs 4 days (p <0.001)]. Male sex [OR 2.09 (95% CI:0.96-4.59), p=0.064], age per year [OR 1.02 (95% CI:1.01-1.04), p=0.015] symptom duration [OR1.11 (CI 0.99-1.24), p = 0.058], admission bilirubin [OR 1.02 (CI: 1.00-1.04), p = 0.022], NLR [OR 1.09 (CI 1.00-1.18), p = 0.037] were associated with AKI. In adults admission potassium was inversely associated with AKI [OR 0.46 (95% CI 0.21-1.01), p 0.056], while in children admission potassium [OR 3.00 (95% CI 0.88-10.6), p 0.088] was associated with AKI. Conclusion: AKI in dengue hospitalizations is higher than most reports at 25.8%. Targeted public health policy on vector control and early symptom recognition may be needed to improve outcomes.

13
ICU admission and mortality in adult patients with influenza A/H1N1-related pneumonia in Vietnam since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic: a 10-year cohort study

Ho, M. Q.; Duong, T. B.; Nguyen, T. L. N.; Tri, N. S.; Bui, T.; Thai, T. T.; Muscatello, D. J.; Sunjaya, A. J.; Chen, S.; Nguyen, N. T.; Nguyen, T. M.; Nguyen, A. T. K.; Duong, C. M.

2026-04-20 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.18.26351156 medRxiv
Top 0.2%
1.7%
Show abstract

The A(H1N1)pdm09 virus remains a major global health threat. This study examined the burden of ICU admission, mortality, and associated predictors among patients with A(H1N1)pdm09 pneumonia in a leading center for infectious diseases in Vietnam. Information on demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics, and outcomes was retrieved from medical records of adults admitted with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 during 2009-2019. Among 729 cases, 21.7% (158/729) developed pneumonia. Among 158 pneumonia cases, 36.7% (58/158) developed moderate-to-severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), and 15.2% (24/158) received invasive ventilation. ICU admission and mortality rates were 48.7% (77/158, 95%CI 41.1-56.5%) and 8.2% (13/158, 95%CI 4.9-13.6%), respectively. Predictors of ICU admission included being >60 years old (adjusted OR [AOR] 13.864, 95%CI 2.185-87.956, P=0.005), comorbidities (AOR 6.527, 95%CI 1.710-24.915, P=0.006), AST (AOR 1.013, 95%CI 1.001-1.025, P=0.029), and moderate-to-severe ARDS (AOR 14.027, 95%CI 4.220-46.627, P<0.001). Predictors of mortality were invasive ventilation (AOR 55.355, 95%CI 1.486-2062.375, P=0.030) and double-dose oseltamivir or combination therapy (AOR 32.625, 95%CI 1.594-667.661, P=0.024). In conclusion, mortality is not rare in A(H1N1)pdm09 infection. Monitoring of older patients and those with comorbidities, liver enzyme elevation, or moderate-to-severe ARDS is essential for the timely detection of complications requiring intensive care.

14
Cost-Effective Threshold Price for Alternative Infant and Neonatal Rotavirus Vaccines: A Dual-Country Evaluation

Li, X.; Asare, E. O.; Kwon, J.; Wenger, C. G.; Armah, G. E.; Cunliffe, N. A.; Jere, K. C.; Bilcke, J.; Beutels, P.; Pitzer, V. E.

2026-05-15 health economics 10.64898/2026.05.12.26353029 medRxiv
Top 0.2%
1.7%
Show abstract

Suboptimal rotavirus vaccine effectiveness in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) highlights the need for next-generation vaccines, such as the neonatal RV3-BB vaccine. However, there is uncertainty in the duration of protection and future price of vaccines in development. We aim to identify the conditions under which switching to RV3-BB is optimal in Malawi and Ghana, where the current immunization programs use 2-dose Rotarix and 3-dose Rotavac schedules, respectively. A full incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using a validated transmission model calibrated to country-specific rotavirus data. Over 2025-2034, introducing RV3-BB resulted in the largest rotavirus-related burden reduction compared with the current country-specific programs. At moderate willingness-to-pay (~0.5 time Gross Domestic Product per capita), RV3-BB was preferred over Rotavac if price per dose was <$1.2 in Malawi and <$2.5 in Ghana, and/or if the average duration of protection exceeded 40 weeks in Malawi. The RV3-BB vaccine is likely to be cost-effective in Malawi and Ghana, as well as other LMICs, based on expected pricing and duration of protection.

15
Modelling serological cross-reactivity to disentangle the dynamics of West Nile and Usutu viruses in an emerging area

Bastard, J.; Migne, C.; Helle, T.; Agneray, E.; Bigeard, C.; Boudjadi, Y.; Chevrier, M.; Dumarest, M.; Gondard, M.; Martin-Latil, S.; Mathews-Martin, L.; Petit, T.; Charpentier, T.; Pouillevet, H.; Durand, B.; Metras, R.; Gonzalez, G.

2026-04-17 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.07.26350295 medRxiv
Top 0.2%
1.7%
Show abstract

Zoos may serve as sentinel sites for zoonotic vector-borne diseases. West Nile virus (WNV) and Usutu virus (USUV) are closely related orthoflaviviruses transmitted between Culex mosquitoes and a bird reservoir. Both viruses can also infect mammals, including humans, where they may cause symptoms and, more rarely, hospitalization and death. However, serological cross-reactivity between WNV and USUV complicates their differential diagnosis. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the dynamics of emergence of WNV in a zoo located in a newly affected area in Europe, using ELISA and Virus Neutralization Test (VNT) serological analysis of 1707 animal sera collected between 2015 and 2024. Combining this data in a model accounting for cross-reactivity with USUV, we estimated yearly forces of infection (FOI) by both viruses, and thus found that WNV likely circulated in the area one year prior to the first cases reported to the passive surveillance system. Our results also showed that, in the zoo, mammals and reptiles had a lower risk of infection than birds (relative risk of 0.14 [0.05; 0.28]), and that the exposure of birds to water (aquatic lifestyle or proximity to stagnant water) affected the risk. Finally, we estimated diagnosis parameters, including the sensitivity of the VNT (80.4% [76.5%; 84.3%]), the expected VNT titer value, and the level of serological cross-reactivity between viruses during the VNT. To conclude, our modelling framework allowed to disentangle the co-circulation of two closely related viruses, a crucial point in ensuring the reliable sentinel surveillance of these vector-borne zoonotic pathogens.

16
A Study To Analyse The Demographics And Injury Pattern Of Dog Bite Cases In Emergency Department Of A Tertiary Care Hospital In Chennai

Vinoth, D.; kumar, A.; jenifer, E.

2026-05-22 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.20.26353645 medRxiv
Top 0.2%
1.7%
Show abstract

ABSTRACT Background Dog bite injuries are a major yet largely preventable public health concern worldwide. They contribute significantly to morbidity, healthcare burden, and economic costs, particularly in emergency department .The present study aims to analyse the demographics and injury pattern of dog bite cases presenting to the emergency department of a tertiary care hospital in Chennai. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study with dog bite injured participants attending the Causality from November 2025 to April 2026 data was collected using a structured tool including details on demographics (Age, Gender, Education) injury related characteristics , history of pure bite site of dog bite injury type, WHO bitten criteria and information to management etc. We used here non probability statistical analysis and age specific dog bite cases and independent variables were analysed using SPSS (2.0 version). Result A total of Two hundred sixteen dog bite cases were analysed in the study by period of 6 months The majority of participants were 172 (79.6%) were above 18 years and 44 (20.4) were below 18 year, 130 (60%) from rural areas and 86 (39.8%) from urban areas, 136 (63.0%) of Victims presented within a day of the bite, 61( 28.2) next day and 19 (8.8%) in after one week 66 (30.6) were bitten by own dog and 150(69.4%)were bitten by neighbour / friended dog. 124(57.4) were bitten by stray dog 92(42.6) bitten by pet dog. 117(54.2) were vaccinated dog and 99(45.8%) were not vaccinated .110(50.9) victims were injured by laceration. 26(12.0%) were injured by puncture wound.46(21.3) were injured by abrasion 10(4.6) were injured by avulsion 15(6.9%) were injured by crush injury. 156(72.2%) were had minor wound.45(20.8%) victims had moderate wound and 15(6.9%) victims had severe wound. 112(51.9%) victims were taken antibiotics.104(48%) were not taken antibiotics. 185(85.6%) victims received tetanus toxoid, 31(14.4%) were not received tetanus toxoid. CONCLUSION There is a high burden of dog bite injuries from stray dogs in India. Despite early hospital presentation in many cases gaps in first aid practices and rabies post exposure prophylaxis were evident and highlighting inadequate awareness. Key words Rabies immunoglobulin, Dog bite, WHO criteria, Anti rabies vaccine, stray Dog, wound

17
Economic Burden and Return on Investment of Immunization Programs in Saudi Arabia: A Health Economic Evaluation

Alshahrani, A. M.; Ashour, A. m.

2026-04-17 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.15.26350984 medRxiv
Top 0.2%
1.7%
Show abstract

BackgroundVaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) continue to impose a significant health and economic burden globally, despite advances in immunization programs. Narrower to the context of Saudi Arabia, the current literature consistently shows that the high vaccination coverage has had the primary impact of reducing disease incidence. Regardless, the broader economic impact of VPDs and the financial benefits of immunization remain important for policy evaluation within Saudi Arabia. MethodsThis study employed a model-based economic evaluation using a societal perspective in order to carry out an estimation of the economic burden of measles, influenza, and pneumococcal diseases. We utilized the Cost of Illness (COI) approach for the purpose of quantifying direct medical costs and indirect productivity losses. On the other hand, the Value of Statistical Life (VSL) approach helped in the estimation of the monetary value of mortality reduction. A comparative framework analyzed current vaccination coverage against a counterfactual no-vaccination scenario for the calculation of the return on investment (ROI). ResultsThe estimated annual economic burden of the three selected VPDs in the absence of vaccination was USD 385 (95% CI: 315-460) million. Immunization programs generated substantial economic benefits, with total benefits estimated at USD 1085 (95% CI: 815-1360) million annually. The calculated ROI was 9.0 (95% CI: 6.8-11.3), essentially an indication that for each dollar invested in vaccination, there was multiple economic returns yielded. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these findings. ConclusionImmunization programs in Saudi Arabia provide significant economic and public health benefits and for this reason, sustained investment in vaccination is fundamentally essential towards the reduction of disease burden, improve population health, and ultimately support long-term economic productivity.

18
Defining influenza epidemic zones through temporal clustering of global surveillance data

Hassell, N.; Marcenac, P.; Bationo, C. S.; Hirve, S.; Tempia, S.; Rolfes, M. A.; Duca, L. M.; Hammond, A.; Wijesinghe, P. R.; Heraud, J.-M.; Pereyaslov, D.; Zhang, W.; Kondor, R. J.; Azziz-Baumgartner, E.

2026-04-25 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.17.26351048 medRxiv
Top 0.2%
1.7%
Show abstract

IntroductionModeling when influenza epidemics typically occur can help countries optimize surveillance, time clinical and public health interventions, and reduce the burden of influenza. MethodsWe used influenza virus detections reported during 2011-2024 by 180 countries to the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System, excluding COVID-19 pandemic impacted years (2020-2023). We analyzed data by calendar year (week 1-52) or shifted year (week 30-29) time windows, based on when most influenza detections occurred in each country. For countries with sufficient data, we computed generalized additive models (GAMs) of each countrys weekly influenza-positive tests to smooth and impute time series distributions. From these GAMs, we calculated each countrys normalized weekly influenza burden. Country-specific normalized time series were grouped using hierarchical k-means clustering reducing the Euclidean distance between time series within clusters. We calculated cluster-specific GAMs to estimate average seasonal timing. Countries without sufficient data were assigned to a cluster based on population-weighted latitudinal distance to a clusters mean latitude. ResultsWe identified five clusters, or epidemic zones, from 111 countries with sufficient data. The influenza burden in epidemic zones A and B was consistent with a northern hemisphere pattern, with most influenza detections occurring during October-April (A) and September-March (B), while epidemic zones D and E were characterized by southern hemisphere-like seasonal timing, with most influenza burden occurring during May-November. Epidemic zone C had most influenza burden occurring during September-March; most countries assigned to this cluster were in the tropics. ConclusionEpidemic zones may serve as a useful tool to strengthen and optimize influenza surveillance for global health decision-making (e.g., during vaccine strain composition discussions) and to guide country preparedness efforts for seasonal influenza epidemics, including the timing of enhanced surveillance, as well as the procurement and delivery of vaccines and antivirals. What is already known on this topicPrevious initiatives to provide a framework for describing global influenza patterns and to support national and regional prevention and control strategies have classified countries into influenza transmission zones, based primarily on geographic proximity. Many countries have improved their surveillance systems for respiratory viruses, providing an opportunity to re-assess patterns of influenza dynamics using analytic approaches focused on influenza detection data and maximizing global coverage. What this study addsOptimal clustering of influenza surveillance data from 111 countries and proximal assignment by latitude of countries lacking sufficient data grouped countries into five epidemic zones. How this study might affect research, practice or policyBy providing improved resolution on the temporal and geographical dynamics of influenza activity, this study offers an evidence base to aid national and global decision-making on enhanced surveillance strategies, vaccine strain selection, seasonal epidemic preparedness, and resource allocation, thereby strengthening efforts to prevent and control influenza worldwide. This data-driven framework for characterizing global patterns of influenza virus circulation can be leveraged to reexamine patterns as new data become available.

19
Human papillomavirus vaccine acceptability in Cameroon: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Cheuyem, F. Z. L.; Achangwa, C.; Tchamani, R.; Tsapi, A. T.; Guissana, E. O.; Ekoum, E. M.; Mekone, I. N.

2026-04-29 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.28.26351975 medRxiv
Top 0.2%
1.6%
Show abstract

BackgroundHuman papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is a key strategy for cervical cancer elimination. In Cameroon, HPV vaccine was introduced into the expanded program on immunization in 2020. However, synthesized evidence on vaccine acceptability is needed to guide policy. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence of HPV vaccine awareness, willingness to vaccinate, recommendation practices, and actual uptake in Cameroon, and to identify determinants of vaccine hesitancy. MethodsWe searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Library, and African Journals Online from studies to January 2025. Studies reporting willingness to vaccinate, awareness, recommendation, and uptake of HPV vaccine were included. Pooled prevalence estimates and odds ratios were calculated using random-effects models. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I{superscript 2} statistic. The study was reported following PRISMA 2020 guidelines and registered in PROSPERO ID: CRD420261301213. ResultsThirty-three studies were included. The pooled prevalence of willingness to vaccinate was 68.1% (95% CI: 57.4-77.2; 12 studies; n = 4,993; I{superscript 2} = 98%), while HPV vaccine awareness was 41.3% (95% CI: 28.7-55.1; 33 studies; n = 8,175 participants; I{superscript 2} = 98%). Two-thirds of participants (67.7%; 95% CI: 50.7-81.0; 8 studies; n = 1,617) reported recommending the vaccine, but actual uptake was only 22.9% (95% CI: 6.9-54.5; 9 studies; n = 9,686). Willingness significantly declined from 74.2% before 2014 to 57.5% after 2021. Healthcare workers had the highest awareness (74.5%) and willingness (77.8%). Lack of HPV knowledge was associated with nearly three-fold higher hesitancy (OR: 2.58; 95% CI: 2.06-3.22). ConclusionsDespite moderate willingness, HPV vaccine awareness and uptake remain low in Cameroon, with marked disparities across regions and populations. Addressing knowledge gaps and strengthening context-specific vaccination strategies are needed to improve coverage.

20
Oropouche, Dengue, and Chikungunya differential diagnosis. Development and validation of predictive models with surveillance data from Espirito Santo-Brazil.

Nickel Valerio, E. C.; Coli Seidel, G. M.; Da Silva Nunes, R.; Alvarenga Americano do Brasil, P. E.

2026-04-25 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.17.26350875 medRxiv
Top 0.2%
1.5%
Show abstract

There is an ongoing Oropouche Fever (OF) outbreak in Brazil since 2024. There are dengue and chikungunya prediction models available, but none to help discriminate dengue, chikungunya, and OF. ObjectiveThis study aims to develop and validate clinical prediction models for dengue, chikungunya, OF. MethodsThis study uses surveillance data from Espirito Santo state / Brazil, from 2023-2025. Epidemiological investigations and biological samples were used to conclude cases as either (a) clinical-epidemiologically confirmed, (b) laboratory confirmed, or (c) "discarded". The predictors were all data related to signs, symptoms, and comorbidities available in the notification forms. The analysis was performed using random forest regression models, one for each outcome, in development and validation datasets. ResultsA total of 465,280 observations were analyzed, 261,691 dengue cases (56.6%), 18,676 chikungunya cases (4.0%), 12,174 OF cases (2.6%), and 179,115 discarded cases (38.6%). All three models had good discrimination and moderate to good calibration after scaling prediction. The models retained from 26 to 16 predictors each. Leukopenia and vomiting were the most discriminatory predictors for dengue, arthritis, arthralgia, and rash were the most discriminatory for chikungunya, and epidemiological features were the most relevant for OF. The dengue, chikungunya, and OF models had ROC AUC of 0.726, 0.851, and 0.896 in the validation set, respectively. ConclusionThis research identified predictors most discriminative between dengue, chikungunya, and OF. We developed and validated predictive models, one for each condition, with moderate to very good performance available at https://pedrobrasil.shinyapps.io/INDWELL/. One may use them in diagnostic work-up and arbovirus surveillance. LAY SUMMARYO_LIDengue fever was by far the most common confirmed infection in the surveillance system (56.6%), followed by chikungunya cases (4.0%), oropouche cases (2.6%), zika cases (0.2%), with different seasonality. C_LIO_LIAlthough suspected dengue cases were more laboratory tested, laboratory confirmation was more frequent among oropouche fever cases. It was possible to develop and validate models for dengue, chikungunya, and oropouche diagnostic investigation, and their performance was from moderate to very good, with suggested decision limits to aid the users. All attempts to develop Zika models returned models with unacceptable performance. C_LIO_LIWe developed an instrument to predict the three conditions with the same predictors and made it available for users at https://pedrobrasil.shinyapps.io/INDWELL/. C_LI